Dutch Cabinet Publishes Household Energy Bill Forecast and Study of Time-Based Grid Tariffs
The Dutch government has published a forecast of household energy bills to 2031 and a study of time-based network tariffs, which would charge more for using the grid at busy times and less at quiet ones.
The cabinet response
On 15 September, Prinsjesdag, Minister Stientje van Veldhoven-van der Meer sent the cabinet's response on the development of household energy bills to the Eerste Kamer. It attaches a TNO forecast for 2026 to 2031 and a Berenschot study of time-dependent network tariffs.
What TNO expects for bills
In 2026 euros, TNO puts the average household energy bill at about EUR 2,020 in 2026, rising to about EUR 2,140 in 2031. Network costs for the average household rise by about 24% over the five years, which the letter treats as the main driver.
The picture differs by heating type. A home with a gas boiler goes from about EUR 2,390 to EUR 2,740, while a fully electric heat pump home goes from about EUR 680 to EUR 1,030, still the lowest of the groups listed.
Time-based network tariffs
The Berenschot study looks at a proposal from the grid operators' association, Netbeheer Nederland, which the Dutch regulator ACM is still reviewing. According to the letter, the ACM expects a draft decision this autumn and a final decision by the end of the year, so this is not yet policy. Solar & Storage Magazine reports a planned start of 1 January 2029.
The letter estimates that by 2030, grid costs for roughly six in ten households would be lower than under the current system. It gives a saving of about EUR 40 to EUR 82 a year for smart heat pump users. Households that use more electricity would generally pay more, but can lower the bill by shifting use away from peak hours.
What it means for home batteries
A price signal that changes through the day is the kind of thing a home battery can respond to, in the same way as a dynamic energy contract. Net metering is also due to end in 2027, and TNO notes that this and the new tariffs will probably increase battery use, but it did not model batteries in its figures.
We could not confirm any rule on home batteries in the documents we read. For the Dutch picture so far, see our Netherlands country guide and our piece on dynamic tariffs.
Sources
- Dutch government to the Eerste Kamer: Kabinetsreactie ontwikkeling energierekening huishoudens (15 September 2026)
- Solar & Storage Magazine: kabinet omarmt tijdsafhankelijk nettarief
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